{"id":18071,"date":"2024-03-17T04:40:33","date_gmt":"2024-03-17T04:40:33","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/soicau5067.minhngocxoso.com\/?p=18071"},"modified":"2024-03-17T04:40:33","modified_gmt":"2024-03-17T04:40:33","slug":"mach-ban-cach-tinh-xac-suat-du-doan-xo-so-chinh-xac-nhat","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/soicaududoan.com\/mach-ban-cach-tinh-xac-suat-du-doan-xo-so-chinh-xac-nhat\/","title":{"rendered":"m\u00e1ch b\u1ea1n c\u00e1ch t\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n x\u1ed5 s\u1ed1 ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c nh\u1ea5t"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

D\u00f9 b\u1ea1n c\u00f3 d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n XSMN hay MB c\u0169ng c\u1ea7n nh\u1eefng c\u00e1ch x\u00e1c \u0111\u1ecbnh quy lu\u1eadt c\u1ea7u v\u00e0 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t v\u1ec1 c\u1ea7u. Th\u01b0\u1eddng s\u1ed1 xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n tr\u00ean nh\u1eefng t\u1edd v\u00e9 s\u1ed1 \u0111\u1ec1u tu\u00e2n theo quy lu\u1eadt xu\u1ea5t hi\u1ec7n c\u1ee7a t\u1eadp h\u1ee3p b\u1ed9 s\u1ed1 l\u1edbn. Nh\u01b0ng c\u0169ng c\u00f3 nh\u1eefng quy lu\u1eadt ri\u00eang bi\u1ec7t c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i \u0111\u00e0i quay s\u1ed1 m\u00e0 ng\u01b0\u1eddi ch\u01a1i c\u1ea7n n\u1eafm v\u1eefng. V\u1edbi ng\u01b0\u1eddi m\u1edbi b\u1eaft \u0111\u1ea7u ch\u01a1i, ki\u1ebfn th\u1ee9c sau l\u00e0 \u0111i\u1ec1u c\u01a1 b\u1ea3n t\u1ed1i thi\u1ec3u c\u1ea7n bi\u1ebft. H\u00e3y c\u00f9ng t\u00ecm hi\u1ec3u \u0111\u1ec3 ko b\u1ecf l\u1ee1 nh\u1eefng gi\u1ea3i nh\u1ecf nh\u1ea5t k\u1ec3 c\u1ea3 l\u00e0 gi\u1ea3i t\u00e1m mi\u1ec1n nam hay gi\u1ea3i t\u00e1m mi\u1ec1n trung.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00ednh x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n XSMN ch\u00ednh x\u00e1c<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

B\u1ea1n c\u1ea7n bi\u1ebft x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t chi\u1ebfn th\u1eafng c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i tr\u00f2 ch\u01a1i l\u00e0m c\u0103n c\u1ee9 l\u1ef1a ch\u1ecdn th\u00edch h\u1ee3p. C\u00e1c d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n XSMN c\u1ea7n c\u00f3 s\u1ef1 t\u00ednh to\u00e1n c\u1ea9n th\u1eadn v\u00e0 d\u1ef1a theo t\u1ef7 l\u1ec7 v\u1ec1 c\u1ee7a m\u1ed7i lo\u1ea1i h\u00ecnh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 \u00edt nh\u1ea5t 1 l\u1ea7n trong 27 l\u1ea7n quay s\u1ed1 = 1 \u2013 (X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t) = 1 \u2013 0,99^27 =23,7657%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 2<\/strong>  = 100% \u2013 X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng tr\u00fang = 100 \u2013 94,195% = 5,8%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong \u0111\u00f3 x\u00e1c xu\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t \u0111\u01b0\u1ee3c t\u00ednh  = X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 2 con + X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 v\u1ec1 1 con = 57,957% + 36,238% = 94,195%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 xi\u00ean 3<\/strong> = 100% \u2013  X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t = 100% \u2013 98,527% = 1,473%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trong \u0111\u00f3 x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u01b0\u1ee3t l\u00f4 3 = X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t kh\u00f4ng v\u1ec1 c\u1ea3 3 s\u1ed1 + X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 v\u1ec1 1 s\u1ed1 + x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t ch\u1ec9 v\u1ec1 2 s\u1ed1 = 0,97^27 + 3 * 23,7675% * 0,98^27 + 3 * 5,8% * 0,99^27 = 98,527%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang l\u00f4 = 1%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

X\u00e1c su\u1ea5t tr\u00fang \u0111\u1ec1 ba ch\u00e2n = 0.1%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Tr\u00fang l\u00f4 ba ch\u00e2n x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t 1- (0.999^27) = 2,67%<\/p>\n\n\n\n

T\u00ednh to\u00e1n d\u1ef1 \u0111o\u00e1n XSMN x\u00e1c su\u1ea5t cao nh\u1ea5t<\/p>\n\n\n\n